Friday, 8 May 2009

Why we fight...

From Anthony Watts ...Albert Einstein once said, “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” Einstein’s words express a foundation principle of science intoned by the logician, Karl Popper: Falsifiability. In order to verify a hypothesis there must be a test by which it can be proved false. A thousand observations may appear to verify a hypothesis, but one critical failure could result in its demise. The history of science is littered with such examples.
A hypothesis that cannot be falsified by empirical observations, is not science. The current hypothesis on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), presented by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is no exception to this principle...Despite expectations of warming, temperature measurements of the upper 700m of the ocean from the ARGO array show no increase from 2003 through 2008... It is evident that the AGW hypothesis, as it now stands, is either false or fundamentally inadequate. One may argue that projections for global warming are measured in decades rather than months or years, so not enough time has elapsed to falsify this hypothesis. This would be true if it were not for the enormous deficit of heat we have observed. In other words, no matter how much time has elapsed, if a projection misses its target by such a large magnitude (6x to 8x), we can safely assume that it is either false or seriously flawed...


The "single experiment" that proves Al Gore and the IPPC wrong is likely to be the smoking gun of ongoing monitoring of planetary heat and sea temperature by the ARGO project. It is no small wonder that politicians such as Australia's Kevin Rudd, and Democrats in the USA, are stalling climate change measures and making contingency plans for delaying the implemenation of radical IPCC measures.
If Einstein and Karl Popper were alive today, they would demand that their scientific voices be heard. They would also be aghast that science is being subverted by politicians, compliant bureaucrats and self-interested members of the scientific community...

3 comments:

P2O2 said...

Hi,

I once read about "scientific-technological elite" which will bring dire consequences and enslave US society. The prophesy was spoken out by Dwight Eisenhower in His famous Farewell Address to the Nation

The farewell speech of U.S.A. President, Dwight Eisenhower. Given on 17 January 1961 and televised in the U.S.A.That's The answer which may help to understand current events.

Regards

Ayrdale said...

Thanks P202, I've read that speech, and it's very prophetic indeed. I think I've posted on it, and perhaps it's worthy on mention again.

Mark Brentano said...

The Popper/Einstein point is originally found in David Hume; philosophers call it 'hard scepticism'. Good post; we're used to thinking of science as a big friendly uncle with lots of toys. What happens when his mood changes?