...now the forces of panic and alarm are clearly in retreat re AGW the argument from the green left is typified by this comment from a Guardian reader (left)...The climate change discussion has shifted from a science based decision in my mind, to a logic based decision. Do we continue to put our (human) efforts into exploiting energy sources that are clearly finite (coal, oil, gas et al) or do we shift our efforts to exploiting energy sources that are abundant, and will remain so for millenia (wind, wave, solar et al). On the offchance that emissions do cause global warming, which option is more logical. It's pretty obvious to me!The commenter is of course simply saying that the science linking CO2 with climatastrophe has been shown to be fraudulent and is now discredited in all respects, and is retreating to the sustainability argument. He obviously hasn't read 'The death of wind farms' either...H/T Andrew Bolt.
Nevertheless, the late great Julian Simon had rather a lot to say about the sustainability argument in his books The Ultimate Resource, editions 1 and 2. (Edition 2 available in full, online, here ) Re the finite supply of oil, Simon observes...
...The history of energy economics shows that, in spite of troubling fears in each era of running out of whichever source of energy was important at that time, energy has grown progressively less scarce, as shown by long-run falling energy prices...The cause of the increasing plenty in the supply of energy has been the development of improved extraction processes and the discovery of new sources and new types of energy... These new developments have not been fortuitous, but rather have been induced by increased demand caused in part by rising population...For the very long run, there is nothing meaningfully "finite" about our world that inevitably will cause energy, or even oil in particular, to grow more scarce and costly. Theoretically, the cost of energy could go either up or down in the very long run. But the trends point to a lower cost...
Julian Simon's predictions about our world put him of course into direct combat with the Malthusian doomsayers of his day, most notably the infamous Club of Rome, whose propaganda assault was spearheaded by the author Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich alleged that Simon was wrong about future commodity prices, and entered in a famous wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. Ehrlich ultimately lost the bet, and all five commodities that were selected as the basis for the wager continued to trend downward until 2002...From Wikipedia...Simon challenged Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was. In response to Ehrlich's published claim that "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000" — a proposition Simon regarded as too silly to bother with — Simon countered with "a public offer to stake US$10,000 ... on my belief that the cost of non-government-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run." You could name your own terms: select any raw material you wanted — copper, tin, whatever — and select any date in the future, "any date more than a year away," and Simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager... Ehrlich and his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price rises: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Then, on paper, they bought $200 worth of each, for a total bet of $1,000, using the prices on September 29, 1980, as an index. They designated September 29, 1990, 10 years hence, as the payoff date. If the inflation-adjusted prices of the various metals rose in the interim, Simon would pay Ehrlich the combined difference; if the prices fell, Ehrlich et al. would pay Simon... Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history. But by September 1990, without a single exception, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals had fallen, and in some cases had dropped through the floor. Chrome, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.88 a decade later...
The point of all this ? Julian Simon's "ultimate resource" was of course the ingenuity of mankind, to respond and to overcome the technological challenges of the day. Our future, Simon reasoned, can be assessed by considering our past. And in the world today...Raw materials and energy are getting less scarce. The world's food supply is improving. Pollution in the developed countries has been decreasing. Population growth has long-term benefits, though added people are a burden in the short run. Most important, fewer people are dying young. These assertions, publicly stated in 1970 and then in the first edition of this book in 1981, have stood the test of time...Our species is better off in just about every measurable material way.
..And there is stronger reason than ever to believe that these progressive trends (progressive in the true sense of the word) will continue indefinitely. Indeed, the trends toward greater cleanliness and less pollution of our air and water are even sharper than before, and cover a longer historical period and more countries...The increase in availability and the decrease in raw materials scarcity have continued unabated, and have even speeded up. None of the catastrophes in food supply and famine that were forecast by the doomsayers have occurred; rather, the world's people are eating better than ever. The conventional beliefs of the doomsayers have been entirely falsified by events during past decades...
..And there is stronger reason than ever to believe that these progressive trends (progressive in the true sense of the word) will continue indefinitely. Indeed, the trends toward greater cleanliness and less pollution of our air and water are even sharper than before, and cover a longer historical period and more countries...The increase in availability and the decrease in raw materials scarcity have continued unabated, and have even speeded up. None of the catastrophes in food supply and famine that were forecast by the doomsayers have occurred; rather, the world's people are eating better than ever. The conventional beliefs of the doomsayers have been entirely falsified by events during past decades...Do you have a dear friend who leans towards green anxieties ? Buy them a copy of this wonderful book. While you're at it, get one for your own library too.
...and for further reading on 'peakoil" see blogger Al Fin, here...
