Thursday, 19 March 2009

Sterns that go bump in the night...and urban heat islands...

...and frighten the anxious...Roger Pielke Jnr. (Prometheus) comments...
...Last night I saw a talk in which the Stern Review estimates of the future costs of extreme events were cited. These estimates are based on a flawed analysis. So I thought I’d post up a mention of my paper making this case....
...The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review’s treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review’s treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report’s estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change ...more here...
...A phenomenon of growth in developed countries is the urban heat island (UHI). While alarmists have attempted to deny or minimise their significance, independent researchers such as the late Petr Beckmann (Access to Energy) have been aware of skewed temperature statistics due to UHI's for 20 years. Now, climatologists in the UK are catching up...

...Finally - an honest quantification of urban warming by a major climate scientist . This is a small bombshell. I’ve been telling readers about UHI since this blog started...more here...

2 comments:

MK said...

Ah but you see if he had been honest and told the truth, the masses couldn't easily be panicked and scared into swallowing this global warming BS now would they.

Ayrdale said...

I think the green/left can see the promised land slowly slipping away from their sight. As it goes they will get more and more desperate...